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中国医药导刊 ›› 2025, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (5): 464-469.

• 研究进展 • 上一篇    下一篇

德尔菲法在中医药领域的应用及展望

牛朴钰12, 陈继鑫3, 冯汇川12, 余伟杰12, 郭天赐12, 刘爱峰12*   

  1. 1.天津中医药大学第一附属医院,天津 300381;2.国家中医针灸临床医学研究中心,天津 300381;
    3.绍兴市中医院,浙江 绍兴 312000
  • 收稿日期:2025-01-17 修回日期:2025-02-07 接受日期:2025-02-17 出版日期:2025-05-28 发布日期:2025-07-23
  • 基金资助:

    天津市津门医学英才项目(TJSJMYXYC-D2-028);天津市科学技术局项目(23KPXMRC00170)

Application and Prospect of Delphi Technique in the Field of Traditional Chinese Medicine

NIU Puyu12, CHEN Jixin3, FENG Huichuan12, YU Weijie12, GUO Tianci12, LIU Aifeng12*   

  1. 1.First Teaching Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine Tianjin 300381, China
    2.National Clinical Research Center for Chinese Medicine Acupuncture and Moxibustion Tianjin 300381, China
    3.Shaoxing Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine Zhejiang Shaoxing 312000, China
  • Received:2025-01-17 Revised:2025-02-07 Accepted:2025-02-17 Online:2025-05-28 Published:2025-07-23

摘要:

德尔菲法是一种多阶段、结构化的反馈匿名函询法,通过整合集体主观判断以形成专家一致性观点。其核心实施路径包含成立工作小组、编制问卷、专家遴选、意见征询、量化分析及共识意见形成,具有匿名性、反馈性和统计性等特点,目前德尔菲法已成为现代医学研究中重要的方法学工具。因其能够有效平衡主观经验与客观分析之间的矛盾,尤其适用于存在理论争议或实践差异的研究领域。中医药强调辨证论治,具有个体化诊疗模式与标准化建设需求并存的特点,为德尔菲法的应用提供了独特的研究环境。本研究系统梳理德尔菲法概念、特点及研究步骤,探讨其在中医药领域的适配性、必要性及发展路径。现阶段,德尔菲法已为中医药疾病诊断、疾病疗护、指南制定和完善、教学与科研等方面提供了重要方法。未来,德尔菲法还需进一步参考中医药领域实际经验,融合客观定量评价方法,结合人工智能等先进技术,进一步指导临床实践和政策制定,推动跨学科合作与创新,助推研究和解决争议,为中医药国际化、标准化助力。


关键词: 德尔菲法, 专家调查法, 中医药, 应用现状

Abstract:

The Delphi technique is a multi-stage structured feedback anonymous inquiry method that combines collective subjective judgments to arrive at a consensus among experts. Its core implementation path includes establishing working group developing questionnaire expert selection opinion solicitation quantitative analysis and consensus formation. Characterized by anonymity feedback and statistical rigor the Delphi technique has become an important methodological tool in modern medical research. It is particularly suitable for research areas with theoretical controversies or practical differences as it effectively balances the contradiction between subjective experience and objective analysis. Traditional Chinese medicine TCM emphasizes syndrome differentiation and treatment featuring the combination of individualized diagnosis and treatment models with standardization needs providing a unique research environment for the application of the Delphi technique. This paper systematically reviews the concept characteristics and research steps of the Delphi technique and explores its adaptability necessity and development path in the field of TCM. Currently the Delphi technique has provided important methods for TCM disease diagnosis disease care guideline development and improvement teaching and research. In the future the Delphi technique needs to further refer to the practical experience in the field of TCM integrate objective quantitative evaluation methods combine advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence further guide clinical practice and policy formulation promote interdisciplinary collaboration and innovation facilitate research and resolve controversies and contribute to the internationalization and standardization of TCM.


Key words:  ,  , Delphi technique , Expert investigation method , Traditional Chinese medicine , Application status

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