我国新冠肺炎疫情与气象条件的关系研究

中国医药导刊 ›› 2022, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (4): 350-357.

我国新冠肺炎疫情与气象条件的关系研究

冯虹玫1 ，尹立2，孙羽3，苏春芳3，李愉4，王式功1，5*

1.成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/环境气象与健康研究院，四川成都 610225； 2.攀枝花市中心医院气象医学研究中心，四川攀枝花 617000； 3.海南省第二人民医院，海南五指山 572200； 4. 成都市气象局气象服务中心，四川成都 611133； 5. 成都平原城市气象与环境四川省野外科学观测研究站，四川成都 610225

收稿日期:2022-06-09 出版日期:2022-04-28 发布日期:2022-04-28
基金资助:
攀枝花市科学技术局创新中心建设项目（项目编号：2021ZX-5-1；项目名称：攀枝花市中心医院气象医学研究科技合作创新中心）；“科创中国”试点城市建设科技服务重点项目（项目编号：51010022T000004684228；项目名称：健康气象养老服务科技攻关与创新）；四川省2022年重大研发计划项目(项目编号：22QYCX0078；项目名称：成渝两地慢性咳嗽患者气道炎症及肺功能变化的气象环境诱因及预测技术研究)；2021年度第二批攀枝花市市级科技计划项目（项目编号：2021CY-S-4；项目名称：攀西地区气象因素对慢性阻塞性肺病急性加重的影响及干预策略研究）

Research on the Relationship between COVID-19 Epidemic and Meteorological Conditions in China

1. College of Atmospheric Sciences/Institute of Environmental Meteorology and Health， Chengdu University of Information Technology， Sichuan Chengdu 610225，China; 2.Meteorological Medicine Research Center of Panzhihua Central Hospital，Sichuan Panzhihua 617000，China; 3. Second People′s Hospital of Hainan Province， Hainan Wuzhishan 572200，China ;4. Meteorological Service Center of Chengdu Meteorological Bureau, Sichuan Chengdu 611133, China; 5.Chengdu Plain Urban Meteorology and Environment Observation and Research Station， Sichuan Chengdu 610225，China

Received:2022-06-09 Online:2022-04-28 Published:2022-04-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 我国新冠肺炎疫情从一开始就呈现出冬半年疫情更为严重的态势，这与天气气候状况的季节性变化密切相关。基于此，本研究在梳理2020年1月9日至2022年2月28日我国新冠肺炎疫情数据、分析我国疫情演变特征的基础上，对比分析了新冠肺炎疫情与2003年急性重症呼吸综合征（SARS）疫情的前期气候背景，同时将新冠肺炎确诊高峰与环境空气温度（以下简称“温度”）展开统计分析，进而对确诊达到峰值的当日温度与当地纬度进行二次函数拟合，并利用国内反弹疫情事件（奥密克戎毒株除外）进行验证。结果表明，两次重大疫情发生之前，都出现了“厄尔尼诺”事件，且都突发于暖冬期间，由此产生“温床效应”。据统计，我国（未含港澳台地区）各省会城市疫情达到峰值（拐点）时当日对应温度阈值在5.0～14.8 ℃之间，其中，温度为 9.2 ℃时累加确诊病例数达最多，总体上疫情高发时对应的温度阈值与当地的纬度符合二次函数关系，即高纬度地区疫情发生对应的温度阈值较低，低纬度地区则较高，且该二次函数同样适用于我国2020、2021年冬季反弹疫情。这一方面对国内外其他学者发现各地新冠肺炎疫情与空气温度之关系不一致的现象给出了科学阐释，另一方面可为新冠肺炎疫情反弹气候环境风险预测提供新的参考依据。

关键词: font-size:medium, ">新冠肺炎；气象条件；空气温度阈值；纬度二次函数；季节性变化

Abstract: The outbreak of COVID-19 shows a more serious situation in winter，which is obviously closely related to the seasonal changes in weather and climate conditions. In view of this， on the basis of sorting out the data in China′s COVID-19 epidemic from January 9， 2020 to February 28， 2022， and analyzing the evolution characteristics of the epidemic in China. First， the pre-climatic background of the COVID-19 epidemic and SARS epidemic was compared and analyzed， and the peak of the diagnosis of COVID-19 and the ambient air temperature(referred to as “temperature”) were statistically analyzed， and then the temperature on the day when the daily confirmed cases reached the peak and the local latitude were fitted with a quadratic function. The rebound epidemic event has been verified. The results show that before the two major epidemics occurred， El Nino events occurred， and they broke out during the warm winter， which played a "hot bed effect". The corresponding temperature thresholds of the day when the epidemic situation reaches its peak(inflection point) is between 5.0 ℃ and 14.8 ℃ in China(excluding Hong Kong， Macao and Taiwan regions)， and the temperature threshold corresponding to the outbreak is in line with the quadratic function relationship with the local latitude， that is， the temperature threshold corresponding to the outbreak of the epidemic in high latitudes is lower， and the temperature in low latitudes is higher， and this quadratic function is also applicable to the rebound epidemic in China in 2020 and 2021. On the one hand， it provides a scientific explanation for the inconsistency between the relationship between the COVID-19 epidemic and temperature found by domestic and foreign scholars， and on the other hand， it can provide a new reference for the prediction of climate and environmental risks of the rebound of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Key words: COVID-19;Meteorological conditions, Temperature threshold;Quadratic function of latitude;Seasonal change

中图分类号:

冯虹玫 , 尹立, 孙羽, 苏春芳, 李愉, 王式功, . 我国新冠肺炎疫情与气象条件的关系研究[J]. 中国医药导刊, 2022, 24(4): 350-357.

FENG Hongmei, YIN Li, SUN Yu, SU Chunfang, LI Yu, WANG Shigong, . Research on the Relationship between COVID-19 Epidemic and Meteorological Conditions in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF MEDICINAL GUIDE, 2022, 24(4): 350-357.

参考文献

[1]WHO.Coronavirus disease(COVID-19).(2001-12-19)[EB/OL].[2002-04-21].https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19.
     [2]王颖，梁丁元，李垚，等. 历史传染病疫情的环境与气候特征初探及对新冠肺炎疫情的思考[J]. 环境科学研究， 2020， 33(7):7.
     [3]Epstein PR.Climate and health[J].Science，1999，285(5426)：374-348.
     [4]王衍文，仉学淬. 急性心肌梗塞发病气象条件的研究[J]. 气象学报， 1985，(4):109-112.
     [5]李青春，陆晨，刘彦，等.北京地区呼吸道疾病与气象条件关系的分析[J].气象，1999，25(3):9-13.
     [6]赵杰夫，吕中科，赵燕妮.流行性感冒与气象条件的关系初探[J].湖北气象，1998，(2):17-18.
     [7]Ren LL，Wang YM，Wu ZQ，et al.Identification of a novel coronavirus causing severe pneumonia in human：a descriptive study[J].中华医学杂志英文版， 2020，133(9):1015-1024.
     [8]Rosario D，Mutz YS，Bernardes PC，et al. Relationship between COVID-19 and weather：case study in a tropical country[J].International J Hygiene and Environmental Health，2020， 229:113587.
     [9]Prata DN，Rodrigues W，Bermejo PH.Temperature significantly changes COVID-19 transmission in(sub)tropical cities of Brazil[J].Science of The Total Environment，2020， 729:138862.
     [10]Sehra S T，Salciccioli JD，Wiebe DJ，et al. Maximum daily temperature， precipitation， ultraviolet light， and rates of transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in the United States[J].Clinical Infectious Diseases， 2020，71(9):2482-2487.
     [11]Auler AC，Cássaro FAM，Da Silva VO，et al. Evidence that high temperatures and intermediate relative humidity might favor the spread of COVID-19 in tropical climate:a case study for the most affected Brazilian cities[J]. Science of the Total Environment， 2020，729：139090.
     [12]Liu J，Zhou J，Yao J，et al. Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission：A multi-city study in China[J]. Science of The Total Environment， 2020，726：138513.
     [13]Xie Z，Qin Y，Li Y，et al.Spatial and temporal differentiation of COVID-19 epidemic spread in mainland China and its influencing factors[J]. Science of The Total Environment，2020，744：140929.
     [14]Kara M，Ekiz T，Ricci V， et al.‘Scientific Strabismus′ or two related pandemics：coronavirus disease and vitamin D deficiency[J]. British Journal of Nutrition， 2020，124(7):736-741.
     [15]Mandal CC， Panwar MS. Can the summer temperatures reduce COVID-19 cases?[J].Public health，2020，185：72-79.
     [16]Sajadi MM， Habibzadeh P， Vintzileos A， et al.Temperature， humidity， and latitude analysis to estimate potential spread and seasonality of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)[J].JAMA Network Open，2020，3(6)：e2011834.
     [17]Burra P，Soto-Díaz K，Chalen I，et al. Temperature and latitude correlate with SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological variables but not with genomic change worldwide[J].Evolutionary Bioinformatics，2021，17：1176934321989695.
     [18]Jüni P，Rothenbühler M，Bobos P，et al.Impact of climate and public health interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic:a prospective cohort study[J].Cmaj， 2020， 192(21)：E566-E573.
     [19]Tosepu R，Gunawan J，Effendy DS，et al.Correlation between weather and Covid-19 pandemic in Jakarta， Indonesia[J].Science of The Total Environment，2020，725：138436.
     [20]张艳玲，寿绍文，张鹏，等.SARS 流行时期天气气候特征分析[J].气象，2004，30(2):46-49.

快速检索引用检索图表检索高级检索