我国新冠肺炎疫情防控成效量化表征研究

中国医药导刊 ›› 2022, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (4): 358-365.

我国新冠肺炎疫情防控成效量化表征研究

冯虹玫1，尹立2，张葵3，张思璇1，甘建红3，马盼1，甘亚男4，王式功1，2*

1. 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/环境气象与健康研究院，四川成都 610225； 2. 攀枝花市中心医院气象医学研究中心，四川攀枝花 617000； 3. 成都市气象局气象服务中心，四川成都 611133； 4. 青海师范大学计算机学院，青海西宁 810000

收稿日期:2022-06-09 出版日期:2022-04-28 发布日期:2022-04-28
基金资助:
“科创中国”试点城市建设科技服务重点项目（项目编号：51010022T000004684228；项目名称：健康气象养老服务科技攻关与创新）；攀枝花市科学技术局创新中心建设项目（项目编号：2021ZX-5-1；项目名称：攀枝花市中心医院气象医学研究科技合作创新中心）；海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金项目(项目编号：SCSF202007；项目名称：海南康养旅游气候资源挖掘及服务技术研究)；2021年度第二批攀枝花市市级科技计划项目（项目编号：2021CY-S-4；项目名称：攀西地区气象因素对慢性阻塞性肺病急性加重的影响及干预策略研究）

Research on Quantitative Characterization of COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Effectiveness in China

1. College of Atmospheric Sciences/Institute of Environmental Meteorology and Health， Chengdu University of Information Technology，Sichuan Chengdu 610225，China; 2.Meteorological Medicine Research Center of Panzhihua Central Hospital，Sichuan Panzhihua 617000，China; 3. Meteorological Service Center of Chengdu Meteorological Bureau, Sichuan Chengdu 611133, China; 4. School of Computer Science， Qinghai Normal University， Qinghai Xining 810000， China

Received:2022-06-09 Online:2022-04-28 Published:2022-04-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 我国对新冠肺炎疫情的防控举措得到众多国家政府和民众的高度评价。如何科学地量化表征我国新冠肺炎疫情的防控成效成为亟需探究的课题。鉴于此，本研究基于2020年1月9日至2021年12月31日我国和全球新冠肺炎疫情数据，梳理分析了我国及全球疫情的演变特征；基于Logistic函数模拟出我国不同地区新冠肺炎疫情发生发展的实际过程，对比了我国（未含港澳台地区，下同）7个地理分区和国外早期疫情最严重的前10个国家第一波疫情的发病人数增加速率r值；站在疫情拐点与持续时间的角度，探讨了我国早期疫情主高发阶段与2021年多起零散性局地疫情反弹阶段的防控能力；统计分析了我国7个地理分区新冠肺炎确诊病例高峰和其治愈病例高峰的时间差以及患者群体治愈所需时长。结果表明，虽然我国新冠肺炎疫情初期发病速率较国外增长快，但由于控制及时、措施得力，所以早期国内疫情持续时间短；且我国2021年反弹疫情的发病日新增峰值病例数与疫情持续时间比值的平均值是我国早期疫情主高发阶段的5.1倍，表明2021年我国对局部地区聚集性疫情反弹的防控能力较早期更为成熟、防控成效也更为显著；我国7个地理分区从日新冠肺炎患者确诊病例数达到峰值到治愈病例数达到峰值的时间范围为12～21 d，与国内外报道的新冠肺炎患者治愈所需的时间基本一致。本研究全面量化表征我国早期关于新冠肺炎疫情的防控成效，旨在为今后更科学有效地防控新冠肺炎疫情、更好地推广抗疫经验和举措提供科学依据。

关键词: font-size:medium, ">新冠肺炎；防控成效量化表征；Logistic函数；治愈时长

Abstract: The measures to prevent and control the COVID-19 epidemic in China have been highly praised by many governments and people.How to scientifically quantify the effectiveness of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in China has become a topic that needs to be explored urgently.In view of this，based on the data of global COVID-19 epidemics from January 9，2020 to December 31，2021，this study sorted out and analyzed the evolution characteristics of the epidemic in China and in the world.Then， based on the Logistic function， the actual process of the occurrence and development of the COVID-19 epidemic in different regions in China was simulated，and the rate of increase in the number of cases of the first wave of the epidemic in the seven geographic regions (excluding Hong Kong， Macao and Taiwan, the same below) and the top 10 countries with the most severe early epidemics in foreign countries was compared.Next， from the perspective of the inflection point and duration of the epidemic， the prevention and control capabilities of the main outbreak stage of the early epidemic in China and the rebound stage of many scattered local epidemics in 2021 were discussed. Finally，the statistical analysis of the time difference between the peak of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the peak of cured cases in the seven geographic regions and the time required for the patient group to cure.The results show that although the initial incidence rate of the COVID-19 epidemic in China is faster than that of foreign countries， due to timely control and effective measures，the duration of the early domestic epidemic is short. And the first 10 countries with the most severe early epidemics abroad have new incidences of the first wave of epidemics.And the average ratio of the peak number of daily confirmed cases in the rebound stage of the epidemic in China in 2021 to the duration time of the epidemic is 5.1 times that of the main outbreak stage of the early epidemic in China， indicating that in 2021，the ability to prevent and control the rebound of clustered epidemics in local areas will be more mature than earlier，and the prevention and control effects will be more significant.In addition，the time range from the peak of the number of daily confirmed cases in China to the peak of the number of daily cured cases in China′s seven geographic regions is 12 to 21 d， which is basically the same as the reported time it takes for patients with COVID-19 to be cured in China and abroad.This study comprehensively and quantitatively characterizes the effectiveness the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic in China，aiming to provide a scientific basis for more scientific and effective prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic and better promotion of anti-epidemic experience and measures in the future.

Key words: font-size:medium, ">COVID-19, Quantitative characterization of prevention and control effectiveness, Logistic function, Healing time range

中图分类号:

冯虹玫, 尹立, 张葵, 张思璇, 甘建红, 马盼, 甘亚男, 王式功, . 我国新冠肺炎疫情防控成效量化表征研究[J]. 中国医药导刊, 2022, 24(4): 358-365.

FENG Hongmei, YIN Li, ZHANG Kui, ZHANG Sixuan, GAN Jianhong, MA Pan, GAN Yanan, WANG Shigong, . Research on Quantitative Characterization of COVID-19 Epidemic Prevention and Control Effectiveness in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF MEDICINAL GUIDE, 2022, 24(4): 358-365.

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